Zeitenwende for Britain
Last Friday February 14th everything changed in Europe again, the 2nd Zeitenwende, the turning point.
Vice President JD Vance announced amongst a flurry of conspiracy theories about everything from the EU cancelling elections to how Europe is persecuting Christians that the US was no longer the guarantor of European Security. This came at the same time as Vance telling world leaders that in fact the greatest enemy and threat to Europe was not Vladimir Putin and the Russian Federation, but instead the fact that democratic political parties were not letting far right parties like the Alternative for Germany - AfD to participate in government and in conferences like the Munich Security Conference. He then would go to a Concentration Camp, and then immediately to a meeting with the leadership of the Neo-nazi AfD’s leadership and supported their election campaign. The party that wants Germany to perform mass deportations of citizens and non-citizens.
But wait there is more, we learned from the White House that Donald Trump is going to force a peace deal with Vladimir Putin upon Ukraine and the European Union in Saudi Arabia this week. It has been described as a second Yalta Conference with superpowers carving up Eastern Europe again with no participation of the people who will be carved up. An old school 19th century colonial carve up, but two men who are both interested in growing their nations and painting the map with their flags for glory.
Hello Canada, hello Georgia, hello Greenland, hello Gaza, hello Ukraine, and hello Panama.
To simplify - things are fucked, the entire post Cold War world is dissolving and the multipolar world of Great Power politics is back. A second 19th century, a time of robber barons and colonial empire.
The only counterpoint to this is that not all is lost, and the European Union still remains a power force to consolidate democratic forces and power in. But as was clear all weekend and for years it is a power that needs to have military might behind it. The idea of a remilitarised world terrifies me and most people, but this is the result of not dealing with the Russian Federation and the rise of fascism when it could have been defeated without leading to major warfare. But people were weak and lazy with the peace, leaders were spineless when the world order and rules were challenged and broken.
We are on year 11 of the Russian War on Ukraine, 11 years. Instead of punishing the Russian Federation and making it impossible for the war to happen again, people waited, and now the meal is properly cooked.
So what does this mean for Britain and the topic of our story here?
Britain has to choose a side, currently the UK government is attempting to tie itself to Trump while telling Brussels it can be a reliable partner. This is impossible, the US is actively a hostile force to the EU and if the UK is pursuing US interests it is acting counter to EU prerogatives. Especially when it comes to security, climate, labour and economy, all areas the MAGA coalition has hostile approaches to that are actively dangerous not just to the EU, but the world and American people. Britain’s Labour government through the close personal relationships with the White House such as the friendship between JD Vance and Foreign Minister David Lammy, or Labour Lord Maurice Glasman’s dangerous relationship with Steve Bannon, Vance and Nigel Farage show the incredible danger of the EU to consider the Starmer government as trustworthy or even able to oppose global MAGA.
I am not personally positive about the possibility of a shift for this UK government. But let me indulge myself to show you what would be a good idea for the UK as a country to do, as opposed to what I think politicians will do.
The American Republic is collapsing and rapidly, if you are not obsessively following the dismantling of the Federal Government happening under Musk and Trump it is hard to understand the scale of it. Even if it all stopped today it will take YEARS to fix what has already been broken. The US constitution is being regularly ignored and Donald Trump is ruling by decree, and it is only speeding up. He has just in the last two days declared that he was above the law in Tweets and Truth social posts. This is the political project that currently the UK government is thinking of attaching itself to.
Obviously attaching the UK to the sinking ship that is the American Republic is not a good idea. So what is our other option? The European Union.
The European Union is not perfect, I am not gonna pitch that. I worked there, and I have arcane grievances that could fill volumes, but it is also a constantly evolving and changing democratic organisation that is always able to be altered. Innately as a democratic body it is a thing that will never be fixed, it has to change with the world and times. This is democracy, it is an ocean not a statue.
Sometimes I think people don’t understand how insane it truly is that there is a union of 27 countries who are constantly working together to solve problems between, within and beyond them. This work extends from the local all the way to the global level and even space through the ESA. The EU also provides incredible amounts of money to member states and partners, a massive boost to poorer areas. Instead of countries needing to fund and solve everything themselves or beg for foreign aid, the Union pools resources and expertise to fund and make solutions. You see this all the time, even in the UK where EU funding has gone into building local services.
The European Union is also where the cutting edge of global regulation is taking place from everything from privacy, to AI and climate. The rules of the rules based world order happen in Europe from decisions taken by European Member States. The UK was sold a lie about Brexit making them a rule maker again, but that was absolute nonsense. The EU is only a rule maker because it is big and powerful together. Alone even the big countries would be rolled over by powers like the US, China and Russia, or even other economic blocks. The world is a place of giants, there is no second place.
Likewise Europe also now will become the arsenal of democracy, much as the US was during WW2. There is no other choice and this fate has been forced upon it by the US and Russian Federations. This means that austerity is dead in Europe now. Spending will increase and increase massively, and that spending will benefit EU member states and countries attempting to join the EU and partners willing to stand up to global MAGA and Putin. If the UK wishes to benefit from that it must not position itself as a middleman, it has to choose a side. The alternative is that the UK fills the role that Erdogan’s Turkey does currently in NATO as unreliable partner.
Democracies in the world will need to unite together globally, all of the democracies and all of the countries formerly dependent on the US’s security agreements. This move must happen very quickly, a west without the US. Again does the UK act as a leader here against oligarchy and global MAGA, or does it act as ambassador to MAGA.
Then we come to the final and most important question Brentry, the return of the UK to the EU. A wonderful thing that I wholly support and as someone who faced personal and persistent issues due to Brexit I am very personally motivated for this to happen, that said - people in the UK need to understand that rejoining means actually joining.
What do I mean? The UK is not special, it will not get some magical deal. People in Brussels are tired of this, and the world is getting very dangerous. You are either in with the European project or you are not worth the effort. There are enough Orbáns in Europe and the Union does not need another. Other countries who want to join are willing to shed their blood to fight for that possibility. The UK is on the opposite extreme. Yes Brexit has harmed the UK and will continue to do so, this was known, it was warned, but it is not enough to know that Brexit hurts to rejoin, you need to want to participate in the political project of the European Union. Not just get benefits from the European Project. This means moving from seeing the European Union as am Economic booster, but as the serious social and democratic project of a union of countries. That is what people need to campaign for, what they need to sign up for and what they need to work towards.
That is what Georgians, Macedonians, Ukrainians, Bosnians, Kosovars, Montenegrins, etc. all want to participate in, to be apart of European Democracy and the Union. Not just to join a GDP boosting club. Until the UK is campaigning to join the European Project, the European idea, the European Union it will not be campaigning to actually join the union, they will merely be promoting how much cake they will get from the EU.
I say this because the work of the European Union is fucking hard, it is hard to get 27 countries to agree to things, it is hard to get things accomplished, democracy is hard. But it happens and incredible things are possible with that level of coordination and effort. The UK can do great things inside the European Union, but it has to want to participate actively in building it. Not just use Brussels as a stupid line on TV because it isn’t doing something magically.
The arguments for Brejoining are many, and frankly the economic arguments are easy, especially with how catastrophic the UK economy has been. But the greater challenge is changing political parties, which requires fundamentally changing the leadership of UK Labour and the Tories, or people voting for Pro-European Parties like the Greens or LibDems in a massive way. I would advise focusing on flipping parties, and replacing officials with pro-European and anti-MAGA people who will advocate and organise towards EU accession. Until you have new political leaders who will openly and actively and endlessly campaign for years for EU accession it will be near impossible to Rejoin.
It is also important to keep in mind that accession to the EU might take years, but one of the few silver linings of the Munich Security Conference was the European Commission saying they are accelerating the accession process to complete the process for existing countries within a very short time frame. 2026-2027 for the Western Balkans and Ukraine and Moldova shortly after. This presents a serious opportunity in the immediate term for UK campaigners to take advantage of the massive fear around the Russian Federation to move the UK more rapidly towards accession. Whether this yields or would work is unknown, but there has not been a better time than right now to try. The unthinkable is possible in a chaotic changing world.
Finally I think it is important to set the expectations for what a UK Brentry would look like. Don’t expect any carve outs or special measures. The UK will follow a similar accession path to Ukraine and Moldova, with the expectations of all new members. This also includes eventually accepting the Euro. This is obviously something that the Right will lose their minds over, but it is at the end of the day just the reality. There is one type of EU member, and everyone is equal member states. There are no A and B teams in the European Union.
Something to reflect on is that the UK is not the only country who may become a candidate soon. Norway and Iceland are moving towards the Union rapidly, again pushed by the realignment of the US under MAGA and Trump, and the Russian Federation. The Union will grow and it will grow rapidly, the UK will either join this or be passed by while others join in. The non-EU part of Europe will dramatically shrink before the end of the decade, which will make the UK an even weaker 3rd country in a world dominated by a handful of powerful blocks, and many will not be democratic.
The choices for the UK are few, American Satrapy or European Unionism. Submission to MAGA Broligarchy or being an equal Member State of the European Union. For me the choice is simple, I believe in democracy, I choose Europe, and I wish our political leaders thought the same and had the courage to fight for it.
